Real GDP still below Pre-Recession Peak, Chicago PMI declines, Consumer Sentiment Weak: "• From the Chicago Business Barometer™: The overall index decreased to 58.8 in July from 61.1 in June. This was below consensus expectations of 60.2. Note: any number above 50 shows expansion.
The employment index decreased to 51.5 from 58.7.
• GDP: Not only has growth slowed, but the recession was significantly worse than earlier estimates suggested. Real GDP is still not back to the pre-recession peak.
The following graph shows the current estimate of real GDP and the pre-revision estimate (blue). I'll have more later on GDP.
![Real GDP](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vBEB_UP4l-dNVebyXH16aW-50UcaO6NKB-4-QE4pkLVRPJ_EdkGXwC6vuMnYmza73z3IrDDI4KmUnSU3S_Cz-tg03MhoNnhkl0uC4071tvMlebDw=s0-d)
• The final July Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined slightly to 63.7 from the preliminary reading of 63.8 - and down sharply from 71.5 in June.
Click on graph for larger image in graphic gallery.
In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices. However, even with lower gasoline prices, consumer sentiment declined sharply - possible because of the heavy coverage of the debt ceiling charade.
Earlier ...
• Advance Estimate: Real Annualized GDP Grew at 1.3% in Q2![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/10004977-4552571203436283202?l=www.calculatedriskblog.com)
"
The employment index decreased to 51.5 from 58.7.
• GDP: Not only has growth slowed, but the recession was significantly worse than earlier estimates suggested. Real GDP is still not back to the pre-recession peak.
The following graph shows the current estimate of real GDP and the pre-revision estimate (blue). I'll have more later on GDP.
![Consumer Sentiment](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFrnRKWNjipU_4mUtrJK2gvG7_C1-ytM3CL7_DRztBYQwCosHzr8dvuxepRmXOZERk_iNdx2kRmgAyz1-RF34M0DuFnChihKUXmp0CVVmJn3qlPW26WwHz9JuGpuD-ac_-HgPaw5WXA7tL/s320-rw/ConsumerSentimentPrelimJuly2011.jpg)
Click on graph for larger image in graphic gallery.
In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices. However, even with lower gasoline prices, consumer sentiment declined sharply - possible because of the heavy coverage of the debt ceiling charade.
Earlier ...
• Advance Estimate: Real Annualized GDP Grew at 1.3% in Q2
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