Harm to Conservatives' reputation as trusted custodians of health service could herald blow to re-election hopes, say MPs
David Cameron's government is not trusted on the NHS by two-thirds of the country, in a sign that the furore over proposed reforms is "retoxifying" the Conservative brand.
A new poll today reveals the extent of the damage being inflicted on the Tory party by the controversial bill being pushed forward by health secretary Andrew Lansley. It shows that 62% of voters do not trust ministers on the health service, nearly double the 34% who say they do. Among Tory voters, nearly a quarter (24%) said they did not now trust their own government to handle the NHS, a belief shared by 59% of Liberal Democrat voters.
The YouGov poll, commissioned by the health union Unison, follows reports that three cabinet ministers supported an editorial on the influential Conservative Home website last week describing the NHS bill as "potentially fatal to the Conservative party's electoral prospects".
The prime minister has remained steadfast in his support of Lansley's reforms, but fears are growing in Tory ranks that the government's attachment to the health and social care bill, which would further open up the NHS to private providers, means their party will take the blame for any future problems in the NHS. Some within the party have dubbed it the government's "poll tax", the policy that proved so damaging to Margaret Thatcher's last government.
The Tories' reputation on the NHS received another blow last night after a leaked letter from the NHS's deputy chief executive, David Flory, revealed that 30 acute care trusts failed to meet the required standards on 18-week waiting times last year. Flory wrote: "It is unacceptable for performance to fall below the expected standards." In November 2011, 29,508 admitted patients waited longer than 18 weeks for treatment. This is 3,605 more than in November 2010, a rise of 13%, and 8,846 more than in May 2010, a 42% increase.
It is understood that Andrew Cooper, Downing Street's director of strategy, has become highly concerned about the potential for the Tory brand to be "retoxified" as the bill is forced through parliament in the face of huge opposition from health professionals, including doctors.
When in opposition, both Cameron and Lansley boasted that changing the Conservative party's image on the NHS had been their greatest achievement. Before the election, Lansley's personal website said "he has been responsible for the Conservatives becoming the most trusted party with the NHS". In April 2010, a Harris poll showed that 27% of people believed the Tories would be the most effective party to manage the NHS compared with 26% for Labour.
One Tory MP told the Observer: "The party is now bankrupt [on this issue] and has run out of credit with medical and nursing professionals and with the public. At a meeting of Tory MPs I attended last week there was a realisation that we can't win an outright majority next time unless we have credibility on the NHS."
One MP supportive of reforms, Nick de Bois, admitted "the Conservative party has got itself in a phenomenal political mess". Another said that, while many Tories did not disagree with Lansley's policies, they were furious with the mishandling of the bill's implementation, with many blaming the prime minister. "There are a lot of us who are hugely pissed off it has come to this," he said.
Dave Prentis, the general secretary of Unison, said: "The public doesn't trust the government with the NHS and realises that this Frankenstein bill will mean the end of the NHS as we know it. Voters will never forgive, or forget, the party that ruins our NHS."
The shadow health secretary, Andy Burnham, said: "With long waits up since the election and nurses being cut, David Cameron should listen to Labour, drop the bill and use the money saved to protect 6,000 nursing posts that are set to be cut by this Tory-led government."
A Downing Street source said that the prime minister was confident the voters would "over time" recognise the need for reform. He said: "We believe in an NHS free at the point of use, regardless of ability to pay. We'll never do anything to threaten that – that's why we've ring-fenced health spending at the time of an international debt crisis. However, with an ageing population and more expensive treatments, the status quo is not an option. That's why these reforms are necessary – and we're confident people will see that over time."
The YouGov poll asked 1,644 adults whether they trusted the government to handle the NHS.
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