Egypt election: early results

Egypt election: early results - live updates:

• 'The revolution has ended' – Shafik spokesman
• Shafiq and Sabahy trade places for second place
• Free Syrian Army shuns al-Qaida in Syria
1.42pm: The revolution is over, according to a Shafiq spokesman quoted by the New York Times:

Ahmad Sarhan, a spokesman for Mr Shafiq, said voters had rallied to the candidate because he promised to "save Egypt from the dark forces," referring to the Brotherhood and more militant Islamists.
Mr Shafiq would bring back security, Mr Sarhan said. "The revolution has ended," he said. "It is one and a half years."

1.15pm: Shafiq is back into second place according to the latest count from Ahram.
Its latest tally includes counts from 18 of the 27 governorates. Sabahy was in second after counts from 15 governorates.

Morsi 3,451,433 (25.59%)
Shafiq 3,378,998 (25.05%)
Sabbahi 2,862,143 (21.22%)
Abul Fotouh 2,362,956 (17.52%)
Moussa 1,431,239 (10.61%)

Its figures do not include the urban centres of Cairo and Giza.
1.11pm: Hamdeen Sabahy jumped into second place after Ahram's election tally added results from the port city of Alexandria where he enjoys big support, explains Jack Shenker in audio update from Cairo.

There is a lot of confusion. We are not yet sure whether Cairo and Giza votes have yet been included in the tallies we are seeing on our computer screens.
We are getting a mixed picture [from candidate's monitors]. Nobody knows exactly what's happening, but it does seem that whereas a few hours ago the so called 'nightmare scenario' of Shafiq and Morsi going through to the final runoff, it now looks as if Hamdeen Sabahy, the leftist, might just be pipping Shafiq to that second place spot. But we still have to be very cautious ...
All of our predictions have been thrown out the window because areas which we thought would poll well for the Islamist have gone secular, and areas which we thought would be revolutionary, like Suez, have polled quite highly for establishment figures and vice versa all over the country, so it is a very mixed picture.

It could all come down to recounts and accusations of voting violations, Jack says.

If things are a close as they appear to be between Sabahy and Shafiq it is entirely possible that we won't know until Tuesday [or beyond]. Recounts for single polling stations could tip it either way if the figures remain as close as they are. If Sahaby and Shafiq are neck-and-neck for second place ... then individual claims of irregularities and electoral violations suddenly take on hugely significant importance.

12.57pm: The Saudi-owned al-Arabiya TV is saying that Abul Fotouh has endorsed the Muslim Brotherhood's Morsi for the run-off. Unconfirmed at present, but not totally surprising if true.

#BreakingNews: Aboul Fotouh endorses Brotherhood's candidate Mursi in the run-off stage
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) May 25, 2012

Quick update: Blogger Sandmonkey is saying Abul Fotouh has denied supporting Morsi. Hopefully, we shall be able to clarify this shortly.
12.26pm: Much excitement at the latest polls suggesting Hamdeen Sabahy could make the run off.
Journalist Sarah Carr tweets:

Huge screams of joy at Hamdeen hq at news that gap btwn Hamdeen and Shafiq allegedly reduced to 1 percent
— المشير أبو كار (@Sarahcarr) May 25, 2012

Andrew Hammond from Reuters tweets:

Can u imagine the long MB faces if Hamdeen pulls this off??? #egypt
— Andrew Hammond (@Hammonda1) May 25, 2012

Now that the nightmare scenario of a Morsi v Shafiq runoff seems less slightly likely (but still a distinct possibility) it's time to dust off another of Ian Black's runoff scenarios:

Morsi versus Hamdeen Sabahy

In this run-off scenario, the independent Nasserist "one of us" candidate would be likely to win the support of much of the anti-Islamist camp, but there could be a low turnout, which would favour the Brotherhood's man

12.13pm: Will there be a late surge for Sabahy? asks a previously gloomy Abdel-Rahman Hussein (see 11.18am). He emails:

Could the improbably happen? Some polls now are showing that Hamdeen Sabahy has replaced Shafik in second place. There may be life in this race just yet, and more twists and turns coming our way, fingers crossed.

12.00pm: Hang on .... out of nowhere the leftist/nationalist candidate Hamdeen Sabahai appears to have rocketed into second place, according to Ahram Online.

Final results of 11 million voters: Mursi 24%, Sabbahi 23.3% , Shafiq 23%, Abul-Fotouh 18%, Moussa 11.2% english.ahram.org.eg/News/42755.aspx #egyelex
— Ahram Online (@ahramonline) May 25, 2012

Jack Shenker tweets:

Is the nightmare scenario dissolving into a slightly sweaty & uncomfortable but ultimately non-catastrophic dream? #Morsi #Sabbahi #Shafik
— Jack Shenker (@hackneylad) May 25, 2012

Time to change the picture on this blog.
11.45am: Libya: Prime minister Abdurrahim el-Keib, who is visiting Britain, laid a wreath this morning at the spot where PC Yvonne Fletcher was shot dead 28 years ago while policing an anti-Gaddafi demonstration in London.
Keib, a former professor of electrical engineering who took over as interim prime minister last November, also spoke at Chatham House about the problems facing Libya in the post-Gaddafi era – and not only as a result of last year's conflict.
"When we took office," he said, "Libya was in a state of devastation on all levels ... no civil society, no political parties, no free press. Libya was a country where Libyans felt alien as a result of love wages, unemployment of over 30% and lack of opportunities. Libyans also live in fear of the security apparatus."
He continued: "Under the circumstances we have been making excellent progress. In the area of stability, for example, the government has put in place a serious programme for disarmament and the merger of the revolutionaries into the state system."
Brian Whitaker, who was in the audience, gives his impressions:

Tall, in his sixties and slightly stooping, Abdurrahim el-Keib seemed more grandfatherly than revolutionary. Pointing to his background in engineering, he described himself as "a practical man" – which is perhaps a polite way of saying he's far from inspirational.
In fact, he sounded very much an old-style Arab politician – and with similar explanations when things aren't happening. His fall-back position is that many things are on hold, pending the elections next month.
Up to a point, that's true. But he talked a lot about freedom and human rights – which some in the audience found difficult to reconcile with two recent laws numbered 37 and 38 which prohibit "glorifying" Gaddafi and grant an amnesty for "acts made necessary" by the revolution.
Keib's answer was that these are only temporary. "There are many who are trying to get us to a point where we can't do the election," he said. "Remnants of the regime are still operating."
He insisted that free expression and human rights are still "sacred values" behind the revolution. But how temporary is "temporary"? Similar, supposedly short-term problems have been used in other Arab countries to justify a multitude of abuses, including "emergency" laws that end up becoming permanent.

11.18am: The official results of the election are not expected until Tuesday, but almost all the exit polls suggest that Morsi came first and Shafiq second, in the first round says Abdel-Rahman Hussein in audio update from Cairo.
A Morsi versus Shafiq would represent a return to the old days of the previously banned Muslim Brotherhood versus the regime, he says.

The number of votes for Shafiq are possibly votes against the revolution and everything that happened. We can't discount that in the last year and a half a lot of people have been feeling a lot of fear because of this deterioration in security and the economy. And maybe a vote for Shafiq is a nostalgic reaching out for the past where things were not so great, but stable ...
It leaves the revolution, where we all knew it was, appropriated and usurped by the military and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Abdo, who boycotted the poll, adds: "I'm not happy at all that it has come to this. I'm hoping that the numbers change throughout the day, and that this is the not the scenario that we have to face."
He says he will also boycott the runoff in June, but the thought has crossed his mind to reluctantly back Morsi to keep out Shafiq.
10.46am: The Muslim Brotherhood's preferred presidential candidate, Khairat al-Shater, who was disqualified from standing, has an interesting take on the results according to Issandr El Amrani

Just returned from meeting w/ Khairat Shater. He's upset at Shafik performance, blames interior ministry + army use of conscripts vote.
— arabist (@arabist) May 25, 2012

Shater also predicts that how Abul Foutouh and Sabahy's supporters will vote in the runoff (the two candidates came third and fourth with around 37% of the vote between them).

Also Shater expects many but not all AF and Sabbahi supporters to go for Morsi.
— arabist (@arabist) May 25, 2012

10.33am: The Carter Centre has praised the fair conduct of the poll, Ahram Online reports citing Mena.
It also talked to a bitter member of the team of the moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh. She said:

I didn't sleep until 4am. How did Shafiq get all these votes? Really, how? I am extremely depressed. I will pray that Hamdeen Sabbahi and Abul-Fotouh will be cursed for leaving us to choose between Shafiq and Mursi in the runoffs. One of them should have stepped down for the other.

10.22am: Many agree that the likely results show how detached Egypt's internet generation have become from reality.
The Big Pharaoh:

Shafik and Morsy reaching the run-offs proves what we already know by now: revolutionaries are still living in their own big fat bubble.
— The Big Pharaoh (@TheBigPharaoh) May 25, 2012

Al-Jazeera's Jamal Elshayyal:

To all those on twitter/fb if the results of #EgyElections teach us anything it's that online community is detached from #Egypt reality
— Jamal Elshayyal جمال (@jamalAljazeera) May 25, 2012

Journalist Alaa Bayoumi says Shafiq largely ignored the internet generation - a strategy that appears to be paying off.

Ahmed Shafiq's Twitter account has about 5100 followers only showing how little attention he paid to internet generation that led revolution
— Alaa Bayoumi (@Alaabayoumi) May 25, 2012

10.17am: Blogger Zeinobia expresses her dismay at the prospect of a Shafiq versus Morsi contest, and she suggests that Egyptian activists, herself included, were too insulated within an internet bubble to see it coming.

I have spent all night crying and saying stuff I should not say , things I know that I should not write because my rage , things I fear that I would say and then I feel sorry about my Egyptian people.
My only condolences that from 90 million Egyptians only 50% of the eligible voters in the country "50 million" participated in this election , the historical elections that reminds me with the Six Days war defeat.
I do not have any words , it is like choosing between two hells : The Muslim brotherood or Shafiq !!!
We are all to blame especially the #Jan25 Revolutionaries who set back in bubbly Cairo 'that voted for Shafiq' and in their closed social networks realms. We are responsible for this without doubt.

10.01am: Hosni Mubarak will be looking on at the likely presidential runoff with a smug sense of vindication, says Ian Black in Cairo.
In an instant audio analysis on the emerging result, Ian said a runoff between Shafiq and Morsi will make for a very polarised confrontation which many think will prove difficult to get through.
"People who supported the Egyptian revolution will be devastated if that is the choice," he said.

They are both very divisive characters. Millions of Egyptians fear and hate the Muslim Brotherhood because it is an Islamist party ... If you are a secular or a liberal Egyptian, the last thing you want is to be ruled by them. That's one of the reasons why the Mubarak regime was able to last for 30 years, playing on the fears of the alternative, if [his] sort of authoritarian regime went. Shafiq on the other hand is closely associated with that regime ...
Hosni Mubarak, might well feel - in his prison cell - a sense of smug vindication. He always said the Arabic equivalent of Après moi, le déluge - it is going to be tough without me.

Looking ahead to the runoff, and beyond, Ian added:

It is going to be a very bitter contest which doesn't augur well for multi-party democracy in the largest of Arab counties.
Behind the scenes the military will be supporting Shafiq. A lot of people will abstain because they will find it an impossible choice between two such unattractive candidates, if what you are hoping for is progress and building on the achievement of the revolution.
That creates a serious danger of a result that is lacking in legitimacy because people will not want to support it.
Whoever wins whether its Morsi or Shafiq life is going to be much more turbulent on all fronts: politically, economically, security wise. Egyptians would have been better off with a president who was likely to be less divisive.
The capacity for trouble on the streets is going to be greater. There are bound to be tensions with people who believe this is a betrayal of everything the revolution stood for.
The achievement of the Egyptian revolution could look very different in just a few weeks time.

9.16am: Syria: The Israeli daily Haaretz has an intriguing new line on the Shawkat poisoning rumours.

Israel has reliable information showing that despite Syria's official denials, an attempt was made to assassinate several top regime officials four days ago, senior Israeli officials said on Thursday.
The information shows that Syrian President Bashar Assad's brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, and several other senior officials were indeed poisoned, just as the Free Syrian Army claims. But prompt medical treatment saved their lives.

9.09am: An official result is still a long way off but a high percentage of the votes have been counted according to various reports, and the projections are not changing.
Now Democracy's Sharif Kouddous:

Shorouk reports after 83% of votes counted, runoff between Morsi and Shafik
— Sharif Kouddous (@sharifkouddous) May 25, 2012

Al Jazeera's Sherine Tadros:

Muslim Brotherhood say 90% polling stations counted, Shafik vs Morsi in run off. They will hold press conference tonight #egyelections
— Sherine Tadros (@SherineT) May 25, 2012

8.51am: Egyptian activists have been predicting further protests if the runoff turns out to be contest between Shafiq and Morsi.
Egyptian journalist Mohamed Abdelfattah:

Even if Shafik wins fairly, a revolutionary consensus will topple him in a manner much more disturbing than Mubarak.
— Mohamed Abdelfattah (@mfatta7) May 25, 2012

Blogger Zeinobia fears the worst:

Now I am thinking the new wave of youth that will be killed by security forces after releasing Mubarak
— Zeinobia (@Zeinobia) May 25, 2012

Meanwhile, Vidar Helgesen secretary general, of International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, has this sage comment:

@shadihamid @arabist If confirmed, the result tells us yet again that it isn't the international community which elects Egypt's president...
— Vidar Helgesen (@VidarHelgesen) May 25, 2012

The Arabist urges us to wait for the official results

we should remember that while there are some sterling vote-counting efforts being done, the count is not over yet, and nothing is official.
— arabist (@arabist) May 25, 2012

8.25am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live. With Egypt's presidential elections heading for what many regard as a nightmare scenario, we will be focusing on the continuing count and the reaction to the results as they come in.
Here's a round of the latest in Egypt and Syria:

Egypt

• The latest results point to what revolutionaries would regard as the worst possible outcome - a runoff between the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi and Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq. At the time of writing the latest count shows Morsi is on 28.2% Shafiq on 24%. The moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh is on 18.6% and leftist nationalist Hamdeen Sabahy is on 17.2%. Amr Moussa is a distant fifth on 11.9%. These figures roughly tally with counts by the Muslim Brotherhood which put Morsi on 25%, Shafiq, Abul Fotouh on 20% and Sabahy on 19%.
• Ian Black predicts who would win in the mostly likely runoffs, including the "nightmare scenario" of Morsi versus Shafiq.

A contest between them would be a highly polarised choice that would take Egyptians back to the bad old days before the revolution. The Brotherhood would mobilise massively behind Morsi, with the army and police supporting Shafiq. Violence would be highly likely to erupt. Abstention rates would soar.

Syria

• Government forces executed entire families in their homes as part of the crackdown on the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, UN investigators have found, Reuters reports. Both President Assad's troops and opposition fighters were committing gross human rights violations despite a six-week-old ceasefire, but the security forces were responsible for most crimes documented since March, the UN report released yesterday said.
• The New York Times examines the struggle to spread, or halt, the rumor that Bashar al-Assad's brother-in-law, Asef Shawkat, was poisoned alongside other senior figures, which first surfaced in an opposition video last weekend. Foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi has denied the claim adding that the main evidence refuting the assertion was that most of those mentioned had recently appeared on television. "Others who didn't appear are also in good health and at work as usual," it quoted him telling a Kuwaiti newspaper.

Shawkat, a former head of military intelligence, has not appeared on television for some time.
The inner workings of the police state were difficult to ascertain even before the current uprising started 15 months ago, and they are even more opaque now. There are unconfirmed rumors every week of someone in the Assad family or inner circle being killed or wounded.
But the story about Shawkat has been more persistent and more bizarre.

• A former high-ranking officer in the Syrian army, has called for urgent international military intervention to stop what he called the "barbaric genocide" being committed by government forces in his country, the BBC reports.In a talk at Britain's House of Commons. Brig-Gen Aqil Hashem said more than 15,000 people had now been killed in Syria, and that the only way out of the conflict was for the world's militaries to intervene. Hashem said the very minimum the world needed to do in Syria was to carve out a militarily protected "safe zone" in north-west Syria, similar to the one made for the Kurds in northern Iraq in 1991.
• The rebel Free Syrian Army is shunning al-Qaida's attempt to gain a foothold in Syria, according to the BBC's Paul Wood.

One Free Syrian Army officer told me al-Qaida figures have been visiting, trying to form new alliances. They made a direct approach to a cleric near the town of Qusair. Money, weapons and other support were offered, in return for allegiance to al-Qaeda. They turned him away.